Playing the devil’s advocate: Making a case for Putin and Russia
Playing the devil’s advocate: Making a case for Putin and Russia
A conflict report on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, 2022.
Part 1: Prelude and History of the conflict
On the morning of 24th February 2022, President Vladimir Putin addressed the world from his Kremlin chamber. He had the following to say, "I have decided to conduct a special military operation, its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide, for the last eight years. And for this, we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine."
Europe was at war! The continent which was last embroiled in a conflict some 75 years ago, was once again at the center of the world’s attention. As soon as Putin’s address was aired, Russian Kalibr and Iskander missiles whizzed through the Ukrainian skyline hitting vital strategic and military targets. In perfect sync, Russian armored columns started moving in from various directions, with the sole aim to capture Kiev and force Ukraine’s surrender.
Soon the first images of war had started coming out, and as expected the condemnations followed suit. The sanctions which were promised by the west, if Putin “dared” to invade also started pouring in. From financial to consumer goods, from airspace to oil & gas, the west closed every of its door on Russia. The intensity of the sanctions imposed surprised even the biggest of the hawks.
Putin with his single decision was able to do what many before him failed, that is to bring the entire western world together. He was able to end Germany’s decades of self-imposed pacifism and shake the Swede and Swiss from their everlasting ‘sleep of neutrality’. Both the countries had remained stubborn about their neutral stance even during the most brutal phase of Nazi occupation.
It was official, Putin and his beloved mother Russia were now international pariahs. The Russian Rouble crashed to a historic low, while the Moscow stock exchange had to suspend trade due to never seen before sell-offs, and major cities were beset with long queues of distressed people trying to get their money out of banks.
Hence, it can be safely said, with the current situation being panned out that anyone who dares to side with Putin is taking the side of Satan himself. But then, this is exactly what this article intends to do, to present Putin’s side of things, to be the devil’s advocate.
The History:
First, for the uninitiated, we need to discuss some historical aspects of the Russo-Ukrainian relations which would allow the reader to navigate through this article. Ideally, we would have started in the 9th century A.D with the establishment of Kyivan Rus state, however, the scope of this write-up does not allow us to go that far, so we shall skip to the year 1918. With the Russian humiliation in World War 1 and the ensuing revolution, the Ukrainian territory (earlier part of Tsarist Russia) was absorbed into the Soviet Union. However, the Ukrainians always thought of themselves and their culture as distinct from the greater Russian influence.
Add to that, two decades of brutal Stalinist rule in which the entire population was subjected to manufactured famines, secret police terror, and several other unspeakable hardships. Hence, it was only natural for the Ukrainians to welcome Hitler’s forces in 1941 as liberators. However, many Ukrainians went a step ahead and actively collaborated with the Nazis in fighting the Soviet troops and even helped the notorious SS round up Jews for their concentration camp.
Needless to say, when the tide of war changed and the Soviets re-occupied Ukraine, Stalin was angry, rather very angry, with the Ukrainians. Post-1945, Stalin initiated a series of measures that led to the Russification of Ukrainian territory. This included displacing a large population of native Ukrainians and Tatars from Eastern Ukraine (Donbass) and Crimea, sending people perceived to be guilty of being Nazi collaborators to Gulags in Arctic and Siberia, and finally settling ethnic Russians to these depopulated areas.
Fast forward to 1991, the USSR collapses and breaks up into 15 different republics. Russia and Ukraine both go their separate ways. However, during the entire duration, leading up to the 2014 crisis, Russia and Ukraine continued to share somewhat close relations. Initially, Kiev was ruled by forces who wanted greater European cooperation. In, 2010, Viktor Yanukovych, part of a Kremlin-backed faction, came to power. Yanukovych was earlier accused of taking Moscow’s help in meddling with election results and even poisoning the Prime Minister. Unsurprisingly, the severely corrupt and autocratic nature of Yanukovych led to widespread protests in the western part of the country with its epicenter in Kiev.
The protests, now known as the Euromaidan protest, demanded the ouster of the pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych and Ukraine’s entry into the European Union. The protest left several hundred dead and Yanukovych was forced to call for early elections. However, before he can stand the people’s verdict Yanukovych left the country to live in exile in southern Russia.
Sensing an opening, the Russians took advantage of the chaos and moved troops into the ethnic Russian majority territory of Crimea and Donbas. Crimea was inducted into the Russian Federation through a hastily arranged referendum and large swathes of the Donbas region were put in control of ethnic Russian militia.
For the next 8 years, the Donbas militia (with the blessings of Moscow) and the Ukrainian military fought a battle of attrition with each other. Cities, towns, and villages changed hands frequently and human rights violations became a common sight on both sides. Meanwhile, Russia compelled its oligarchs to pump in billions of dollars in Crimea to solidify its link with the Russian mainland.
Part 2: Winds of War and the Road to invasion
One of the grievances that the ethnic Russian Ukrainians from the east had that the 2014 Euromaidan protest and even the earlier orange revolution was the handiwork of Polish Ukrainians and the Ukrainian Jews and they had no say in the workings of their state. The eastern regions which had voted overwhelmingly for pro-Kremlin Viktor Yanukovych were left with a bitter taste after he was toppled in the Euromaidan protests.
Culturally, Russians see Ukrainians as their first cousins and someone who fall within the sphere of greater Russia. Just a few days before the invasion, Russian state TV had featured a program telling its viewer how Ukraine is an artificial construct and its existence is not natural. This belief that the Ukrainians are part of the same identity, the greater Slavic existence, has made it difficult for the Russian soldiers to execute their operations freely, especially in areas with the greater civilian population, as they don’t want to put their “blood brothers” in harm’s way.
NATO’s expansion and Russia’s existential crisis:
“Not one inch eastward”, Secretary Gorbachev was allegedly promised about NATO’s expansion by the US Secretary of State James Baker during the negotiations for German unification. Throughout the months that led to the German unification, the western leaders promised that respecting Soviet Union’s territorial sensitivities were to be the top priority of the western world. However, as the Soviet Union collapsed so did these promises.
In 1997 at its Madrid Summit, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic were invited to be a member of the alliance. Thus, began NATO’s foray into the former Warsaw pact territories. Russia, which was at that time reeling under the dual scourge of economic depression and a delinquent President (Boris Yeltsin) could only manage a feeble protest.
When finally, Yeltsin abdicated and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin ascended the presidency, there was a renewed vigor to bring Russia closer to the west. Putin’s idea was for a united Europe, where Russia would play the role of the leader. Putin pitched the idea of his country joining NATO to President Bill Clinton (something which was considered a strong rumor until Putin himself confirmed it in his declaration of war a few days back). However, the US gave a weak response to the Russian proposal, perhaps wanting to extend its victory lap after beating the Soviet Union in the cold war.
At the 2002 Prague summit of NATO, the three post-Soviet Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were added to the NATO family. Russia was running out of patience, as NATO was now parked right up to its border. Anyways everyone moved on. Putin, taking help of high oil prices, got the Russian economy up and running, enriching himself, his country, and his oligarchs in the process. The boom in the economy translated to the rebuilding and modernization of military forces. And now Russia was ready to take reclaim its place in the world economy.
Russia was now a changed entity. It was now getting more and more assertive about its rights and wanted to hold on to its position as a legitimate regional power, if not a global power. In the 2008 Bucharest declaration, NATO accepted the idea of Georgia and Ukraine becoming a part of NATO. Moscow decided that’s where they will draw a line. Putin himself declared that this idea is a direct threat to Russian territorial integrity and he would not tolerate such ideas.
Meanwhile, Kremlin had a firm grip on Ukrainian politics with Yanukovych’s election as President. In 2013, the European Union proposed a deal for closer cooperation with Ukraine. This deal would have been the first baby steps required for Ukraine to join the EU. However, the pro-Moscow president Yanukovych declined the EU’s offer. Soon, protests started in Ukraine, a large number of protesters came together in the square of their capital, called the maidan. A sequence of events that included widespread violence and the President fleeing the country took place.
Moscow’s influence in Kiev was now replaced by the West. The Western leaders were now calling the shots with regards to Kiev’s foreign and defense policy. It also included promoting Neo-Nazi groups and playing hardball with Russia in the Donbas region. Moscow saw this as a direct violation of its sphere of influence. Along with the loss of Ukraine, it also saw the loss of access to the oil-rich caucuses and the strategic Volga gap. From here on every move of NATO added to the ever-increasing paranoia of Putin.
Between 2014 and 2022, Russia tried to get Ukraine to come to the negotiating table and make it end its affair with NATO and EU and declare its neutrality. But the hawks in the white house and Brussels instigated Ukraine into a confrontation with Russia. With the direct help of the west, the Ukrainians rearmed themselves, to the point that today Ukraine has the 2nd largest stock of Javelin anti-tank guided missile outside the United States. This was too much to bear for Putin who now felt huddled into a corner and was convinced that the only way out of this humiliation was through military operations.
Analysing Zelensky:
Zelensky before assuming Presidency was a well-known entertainer and comedian in Ukraine. He is of Jewish heritage and had a 15-year long career in the Ukrainian entertainment industry. His ascendency to Presidentship is among the most unusual stories, in perhaps the history of mankind. Mr. Zelensky played the role of a high school teacher who stumbles upon the post of President of Ukraine, in a hit TV show, where he was seen rooting out corruption and taking Ukraine out of the turmoil. The TV show became so popular that Mr. Zelensky ran for Presidentship against the seasoned politician and incumbent Petro Poroshenko.
As a celebrated strategic analyst, Brahma Chellaney states the current war is not a contest between an autocrat vs a Democrat but rather an autocrat vs autocrat battle. There are far too many skeletons waiting to be discovered in Zelensky’s closet than the western media would like to admit. For one, Zelensky’s media house which produced the show “Servant of the people” through which he shot to prominence was heavily funded by a Ukrainian oligarch who has been accused of money laundering and running a mafia syndicate. The same oligarch is also accused of funding his political campaign.
Months into his presidency, Zelensky was caught up in the Hunter Biden- Donald Trump scandal which led to the impeachment and Senate trial of President Trump. The Ukrainian president’s name came up in the infamous Pandora papers scandal, where he was accused of having multiple offshore companies intended for money laundering. Apart from this, Zelensky has been accused of jailing political opponents, closing down media houses that provided a different narrative from his own, and helping his oligarch friends launder money out of the country.
Unsurprisingly Zelensky's popularity took a heavy beating. Before going to war, Zelensky was polling around 22% in the Ukrainian opinion polls, equal to former president Petro Poroshenko. And with scandals after scandals hitting him, Zelensky’s re-election was appearing to be a distant dream. That’s where Kremlin must have been alerted. And what do leaders in a democracy do to get re-elected? Appeasement. And how can Zelensky appease his support base? By going all-in and demanding European Union and NATO membership for his country. And that’s where Putin must have got paranoid. Although it is not easy to get a membership for either of the organization the thought of a possible Ukrainian entry into NATO was enough for Putin to amplify his paranoia and make up his mind to invade.
Before giving his generals the go-ahead, Putin must have also watched the US response in Afghanistan quite closely. The weak response to the Afghan conflict by the Biden administration would have surely emboldened him into making the final move. The orders for accelerated military build-up were given roughly at the time when Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban. Troops from as far as Siberia and Syria were mobilized, which made not invading Ukraine an expensive proposition for Putin.
But, What was Putin’s biggest mistake? It was to allow Ukraine an 8-year breathing space in which it strengthened and rearmed itself. Many accounts from the 2014 Skirmish admits that the morale among the Ukrainian troops was at an abysmal level and the majority of their equipment was worthy of being sold into scrap. The Russian troops which captured a wide assortment of Ukrainian weapons were surprised when the majority of them did not fire. Hence, it could be safe to say any military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine would have been over by 72 hours in 2014 with the total collapse of the Kiev government,
However, today the Ukrainian army is much better prepared. Which has made the game in western Ukraine anyone’s game.
Part 3: West’s response and why the sanctions won’t work?
When a decade back Iran did not comply with the west’s demand to dismantle its nuclear program, Tehran was slapped with sanctions, a notch higher than what Russia is experiencing now. The value of the Iranian Rial, like the Rouble, also plummeted, many companies left overnight and billions of dollars of Iranian sovereign overseas fund was frozen. The Iranian economy and the people went through a range of hardships, but did the Iranian state collapse? The answer is no. Today, if not thriving the economy of Iran is running all right. Salaries are being paid, people are in the market buying things, although not as frequently as they would have liked and debts are being settled. To be precise, Iran lives on, despite the sanctions.
As of today, the US-led western block has unleashed a barrage of sanctions on Russian companies and persons alike. Many western analysts and journalists have been calling for even harder sanctions on Russia to give it's economy the final push before its total collapse. However, what they haven’t factored in is the fact Putin in the past 8 years tried his best to make Russian economy, like the Iranian one, sanction proof. When the first economic sanctions were imposed on Russia back in 2014, western media was filled with images of Moscow supermarket shelves being empty due to embargo on food import. Today those same shelves are filled with Russian made cheese and wine.
Russia since 2014, has been on a gold buying spree and at the same has been aggressively getting rid of its dollar reserve. Between, 2014 and 2018 the dollar component in the Russian total foreign reserve went down by a whopping 40%.
The production of consumer products like honey, meat, and wheat (commodities that were earlier imported in large quantities) has grown by almost 100% between 2013 and 2021. Moreover, a weakened Rouble with high oil price would only play into the hands of the Russians who are ensured of having a buyer in Beijing and probably even developing countries in the southern hemisphere. Due to the crippling sanctions, Russia which has been resisting going all-in with its strategic relationship with China due to the fear of being tagged as the “junior partner” might finally get the push to do it anyways. Already, China owns the majority of the commercial real estate in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the sanctions might put the entire Russian state at Beijing’s disposal and Kremlin oligarchs would be replaced by Tiananmen bureaucrats.
Sanctions- The bad and the ugly: In the early days of March, the University of Milan announced it had suspended lectures on Dostoevsky and Russian literature, a few hours later the international cat federation announced a complete ban on Russian Cats from its competitions, in Berlin a Russian origin person’s supermarket was brutally vandalized and there were demands to suspend Russian students from US and European universities.
The calls for sanction which were earlier restricted to punish Putin and his close circle was now evolved into indulging in blatant Russophobia. The western world which prides itself on being free and tolerant was now acting exactly like it accuses its adversary of behaving. It is for exactly this reason the sanctions might act as an agent that would rally the Russian population behind Putin, rather than turning them against him, for it is a grave sin to target the existence of an entire population rather than the actions of its political leaders.
To summarise, economic sanctions have become a blunt and overused tool that does not produce the desired result anymore. And anyone who thinks that he can use hardships to push Russians into submission does not know the Russian psyche, which has an unusually comfortable relationship with pain and suffering. The Russians have seen two absolutely brutal world wars, 60 years of totalitarian communist rule, and the economic depression of the 90s, not once complaining about their situation, for it has become a sin in Russian culture to complain and condemn.
The 19th-century Russian scholar Boris Grushenko had this to say about suffering: “To love is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love, but then one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer, not to love is to suffer, to suffer is to suffer.” (Courtesy: American institute of Psychology, 2010)
If people in the west are piling on sanctions and waiting for someone to play the role of Brutus in Kremlin to eliminate “Caesar” Putin, I think they need to wait a little longer. Russian people have not forgotten the 90’s when 3/4th of the country was on the streets. While old ladies begged, children rummaged through food in trash bins, teenage girls as young as 12 sold themselves into prostitution to earn a loaf of bread. From there Putin has brought them into a respectable state, increasing per capita income by 12 times and making Russia a middle-income country, allegations of corruption notwithstanding. Hence, I assume that the Russian population, which already has a complex relationship with pain, would endure this hardship brought upon them by their commander-in-chief.
Part 4: Misinformation and “Twitterization” of conflict:
On the 2nd day of the conflict, the world woke up to the news of “The ghost of Kiev”. A Ukrainian pilot flying a Soviet-era Mig-29 aircraft had shot down six modern Russian fighter jets. “The Ukrainians are fighting back”, “It’s the end of Putin and his army” the public in the west cheered from the sidelines. Throughout the day similar story kept popping up, Snake Island defenders who defied Russian warning and embraced death, the “Maiden of Mariupol”, a teenage girl who sniped hundreds of enemy soldiers, and a former beauty pageant winner who was now on the frontlines defending her country. All the stories were actively shared on western mainstream media channels without break.
However, soon one by one all the “heroic tales” were debunked. There was no “Ghost of Kiev” and “Maiden of Mariupol”, the snake Island heroes had surrendered and were still alive and the beauty pageant girl was holding a toy rifle. “But these stories, even though fake, are necessary to boost Ukrainian morale” protested the western audience, not realizing that when this bubble would burst it would have an even more damaging impact on the Ukrainian will fight.
The other, rather shocking fact, was the active collaboration of western tech platforms to suppress Russian and even neutral narratives. Social media platforms like Instagram and Facebook were actively banning Russian channels and personalities who were deemed to be peddling Moscow’s narrative. One more phenomenon that I observed was the suppression of neutral and Russian views by Twitter’s algorithm. Even after turning notifications from these handles, I did not get even a single tweet on my timeline, whereas Twitter kept suggesting me pro-western views under different topics.
If World War 2 was the first war to be broadcasted on radio, the Iraq war on live TV, then this invasion was the first war to be broadcasted on social media, a new age 21st-century tool, providing the viewers with a second-by-second update. In a country of 44 million people where almost everyone has a smartphone with an internet connection, there is no dearth of war content for instant consumption.
The extent of disinformation being peddled by the losing side in recent wars (Nagorno Karabakh, Russian invasion, Fall of Kabul, etc.) tells you that if India were to go for military action against Pakistan in the future, we have to go all in, as in marching our troops down the streets of Lahore and Islamabad. Anything less than that could be salvaged by ISPR on Twitter, as was done during the Balakot surgical strikes.
Western countries and their strategist are also using social media to actively encourage their able-bodied but untrained young men to go and fight in Ukraine. The aim appears to create some kind of a European Lashkar or Mujahideen to fight in the west’s “holy war”, which can carry guerrilla and/or lone wolf attacks on the occupying Russian forces. Needless, to say this is a dangerous precedent being set by leaders who label their country as “responsible democracies”. These civilians who would join the “foreign legion” would not be covered under the Geneva convention and risk execution. And how exactly they would be different from ISIS fighters and their brides who are now being put in detention centers and stripped of citizenship.
Part 5: Assessment of the Russian military performance: Is the Criticism fair?
· Yes, it’s fair.
It had become increasingly difficult to give a fair assessment of the performance of the Russian military amongst the fog of war and the massive disinformation campaign being carried out. But working on the information present in the public domain, it appears that it is a case of few hits and lots of misses for the Russians.
As of today (03rd March 2022), the Russian army is standing at the gates of Kiev and a 40 Kilometre “traffic jam” of tanks and other armored vehicles can be seen from the satellite images released by NATO.
The absence of 21st-century platforms like the T-14 Armata, SU-57, and even the SU-35 is evident, as the Russians have focused on using mainly older Soviet-era platforms, which do not provide much parity with the enemy whom themselves use similar era weapons. This equipment has been taking the brunt of the Ukrainian resistance and the internet is filled with pictures of destroyed or abandoned tanks being towed by local farmers.
The other surprising decision of the high command was to use civilian-grade communication equipment and open channel for communication between the forces. As a result, the communication between the commanders and troops is being easily intercepted and used for propaganda by the western and Ukrainian media.
· What could be the reason for deploying such tactics?
First, this could be a simple case of poor planning and subpar execution. Moscow might have underestimated the will and capacity of the Ukrainians to fight against the invading army. This is perhaps the most dangerous outcome as this would lead to greater frustration among Putin’s close circle and finally would translate into the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas to bring the war to a swift end and salvage Putin’s reputation.
The Generals might have miscalculated other deciding factors such as troop morale, the damage caused by the early spring mud season (Rasputitsa), or the fighting efficiency of their enemies who are replenished with new, states of the art weapons like anti-tank Javelin and N-LAW.
Videos of Russian troops looting grocery stores for food, complaining about food and fuel shortages on social media has become a common sight. This appears to be a classic case of a logistical catastrophe, as many areas have not been convincingly been taken over, keeping logistics convoy under threat of ambush. Strategic analysts are predicting mass surrender and desertions if this problem persists and the operation is not over in the next 48 hours.
· Counterview: No, It’s not fair.
With all due respect to the embattled Ukrainian forces, the Russian army is not fighting the war as any other enemy of the Russian federation would have otherwise faced. Firstly, the troops have been assigned the dual task of capturing strategic points and minimizing civilian casualties. Due to this reason, the Russian soldiers in the initial days had shown considerable restraint by attacking only strategic and military targets. The internet is replete with videos of Russian convoys allowing civilian traffic to pass and the civilians going face to face with heavily armed Russians, denouncing their operation. As discussed earlier the bulk of the invasion force has not been assigned new cutting-edge equipment and the soldiers are mostly 18–22-year-old untrained conscripts.
In contrast, when the Americans went into Iraq in 2003, they bombed the cities and towns for 40 days straight before moving in their troops. Iraq had half of Ukraine’s population, a severely depleted army, and almost no international support which Kiev has been so generously getting over the past 3 months. Still, it took the coalition, with all their cutting-edge equipment, a whole month to convincingly defeat Iraq and capture Saddam Hussain.
In comparison, the Russian army is only on the 6th day of its operation and is already knocking at the gates of Kiev. With the Ukrainians being forced to release hardened criminals, blow up vital bridges, and form a civil defense force consisting of 60-year-old pensioners, all within a span of a single week. Zelensky, who is huddled into an underground bunker has drastically changed the tone of his rhetoric from “We will defeat Russia” to “We are ready to talk to Putin”. The speed and efficiency of the Russian army are similar to what is expected of any major army performing in steppe conditions.
The second reason, and even more favorable one for the Kremlin generals, is that the Russian army has exceeded its expectation, hence the logistical problem. Some veteran circles are comparing the Russian “Blitzkrieg” to the performance of Rommel in France in 1940. With Rommel’s forces striking deep into French territory to everyone’s surprise and getting into logistical difficulties. However, a “Rommel” or “Manstein” like success for the Russians remains the least likely scenario of all.
One last theory that is being widely considered is that the Russian generals are preparing for the worst-case scenario. A scenario in which they have to fight NATO itself and come face to face with its arch-nemesis the United States of America. As seen from the Russian casualty list, the majority of the destroyed weapons are older T-72s and BUKs, and not the newer more modern systems. Hence, it can be argued that they are “conserving” their best weapons and best troops for use in this potential doomsday scenario.
Part 6: Putin’s denazification claim:
“It’s very emotional for me because I see European people with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed, children being killed every day by Putin’s missiles, helicopters, and rockets,”. This was the response of a Ukrainian government official upon being enquired by BBC on the situation in Ukraine. For the first time, the public had started considering if Putin was right about his claim.
One of the objectives Putin stated in his speech was the denazification of Ukraine. This claim drew surprise from many quarters, who claimed a country that has a Jewish president cannot be a haven for Nazis. However, there is more to Ukraine in this domain than meets the eyes. As discussed earlier, the Ukrainians had actively collaborated with Hitler’s army during Ukraine’s occupation in World War 2. However, even after Germany’s defeat, there was a strong undercurrent of Nazism in Ukraine, there were people who actively believed in the National socialist cause. The foremost name in this area was that of Stepan Bandera, whose followers today are referred to as Banderites and are at the top of the Russian hit list.
Stepan Bandera was a Ukrainian ethnonationalist who is considered the father of the Nazi movement in the country. Bandera was a rabid antisemite and believed in Nazi racial theories. He has a cult following among Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Stepan Bandera was awarded the Hero of Ukraine medal, the country’s highest honor, most probably after pressure from various far-right groups. Bandera’s ideology was actively followed into the 21st century and his followers went on to form the Azov Battalion.
The Battalion was formed at the height of the Euromaidan crisis and has been accused of gross human rights violation by the UN Human rights commission. The human rights violation of the Azov battalion includes crucifying Russian-speaking supporters of Donetsk and Lugansk republic and carrying out a public execution of ethnic Russian civilians. The Azovs have been actively receiving funds from the state and were integrated into the Ukrainian army. The shelling initiated by Azovs is said to have killed hundreds of women and children, who have a memorial dedicated to them in the center of Donetsk. Purportedly, the Indian student Naveen, who was killed in Kharkiv is reported to be shot dead by the Azov members in an apparent racist attack, a claim made by his friends and colleagues.
Picture: Fighters of the Azov Brigade giving the Nazi salute
The Jewish President Zelensky whose heritage is used to dismiss claims of Nazi elements being present in the Ukrainian administration is also said to be complicit in the Nazification of his country. Zelensky's campaign top donor, Igor Kolomoisky, a Ukrainian Oligarch who happens to be Jewish, has also been a patron of the neo-Nazi Azov battalion. The Pandora Papers reveal millions in payments from Kolomoisky to Zelensky through offshore shell companies. (Source: Max Blumenthal)
Now, finally, when the Russians are at their doorstep the Azovs have taken entire cities and towns under their control, locking the civilian population inside and are ready to fight a battle of attrition with the enemy, knowing full well that either way their end is near.
Picture: Insignia of the Azov battalion (Notice the similarity with SS fascist symbols)
Part 7: Where does India fit in this conflict?
The Russian invasion is perhaps the most difficult time for Indian diplomacy and its non-aligned stance in recent memory. So far, India has favoured the middle path and abstained from all the UN resolution voting, while at the same time making Russia aware of its displeasure on the whole crisis. One of the highlights of this conflict and the subsequent international reaction was how many think-tankers and western politicians are berating India for its stand on this issue. Pressure tactics both on social media and in real-time, to punish India in some way or the other has gone up. There have been calls of sanctions on India under the notorious CAATSA by certain lobby groups in Washington and London. Some old-timers are also calling for cutting off their country’s yearly aid (read alms) to India. (They should be aware that this is not the 50s where the newly released colonies were dependent on the generosity of the crown).
However, fortunately, or unfortunately India’s level of engagement with Russia forces it to play its card very carefully. To put into perspective, India’s areas of cooperation with Russia go from cutting edge military to space technology, weapons like Brahmos are a testimony to this cooperation. Add to that the additional historical baggage of the Indo-Soviet relationship that India has to carry with it.
Whether some analysts like it or not India cannot decouple with Russia at this stage, for various reasons. For one, approx. 60% to 70% of Indian defense equipment requires Russian spares and maintenance at any given moment. This includes almost all of the armored corps, a good majority of the air force, and a sizeable number of naval surface ships and submarines. Since the 1960s, Russia (then USSR) has been the first responder for both our imminent and long-term defense requirements.
Billions of dollars of weapon orders and equipment collaboration, which includes state of the art S-400 missile systems, Brahmos cruise missile and various frigates and nuclear submarines are on the hook. An often-overlooked USP of having Russia as a defence partner is that the Russians are willing to part with their most modern and state of the art weapons know how, something which other countries, including the USA, have been reluctant in doing so and as a bonus Russian equipment does not come with any kind of attachments like United States’ Foreign military sales program. This very strict buyer-seller attitude of the Russians makes it an attractive defence supplier.
Pakistan, India’s archnemesis, on the other hand has been trying to cosy up to Moscow by making desperate gestures of friendship towards Russia most probably at the behest of Beijing. Imran Khan’s recent visit to Moscow on the eve of invasion was also seen as an effort in this direction. Russia has so far been neutral on Kashmir, India’s Achilles heel in multilateral forums and has even used its UN security council veto power far too many times in New Delhi’s favour. Nobody in India would like the Russians voting and vetoing at the UN for Pakistan’s cause and the S 400 and SU-57 being deployed in Lahore and Karachi. India must be closely watching, quite nervously so, the performance of Russian equipment in this conflict, and after the war draws to a close one should expect serious introspection and considerations for future weapons acquisition.
As things stand, India would continue its engagement with Russia. The removal of Russian banks from SWIFT should also alarm India, and as it did with RUPAY and BHIM UPI, India should look for a reliable alternative to SWIFT as well. BRICS as a forum need to continue working and all the members should be vigilant to avoid any kind of stagnation. This is also a golden opportunity for India to secure its energy needs. With crude oil prices expected to touch $200 by the end of this year, it could seriously dent India’s growth prospects and hamper post COVID economic recovery. The Russian Ural crude is being put up on the commodities market at a deep discount, western companies are selling their stake in Russian oil companies, that too at a cut-price. Both the situation presents an excellent opportunity for India. ONGC Videsh, and other Indian oil giants, should snap both opportunities, a chance missed during the 2014 Crimean crisis. This would put ONGC as a stakeholder in one of the largest oil reserves in the world and insulate our economy from the rising gas prices. However, we need to be vigilant with the western watchdogs out for blood and have to find innovative ways to dodge sanctions that would come with this move.
Finally, the flight of western companies from Russia presents a golden opportunity for Indian corporates to capture the 2 trillion-dollar Russian market. Maybe the next time Dmitry from Moscow wants to buy a car, he should choose between Mahindra XUV or Tata Safari and not BMW or AUDI. But this remains anything but wishful thinking, for it is a situation of wait and watch for India.
To conclude, there is no way but for Zelensky to swallow his ego, sit with Putin, or whomever he says would negotiate on behalf of himself. Putin needs to be signaled that a climb down from hostility would not dent his image and reputation among his people. In short, he needs to be given away out to show his audience that the Russian army has done exactly what he set them to do. Zelensky, on the other hand, needs to be encouraged to offer anything and everything on the negotiation table to quell the impending destruction of his country’s capital (something which should have been done many moons ago). The western media’s attempt at making a hero out of a nobody (Zelensky) has only aggravated the situation, which is instigating and emboldening Zelensky to take potentially risky decisions and further endanger the life of his troops and civilians.
Demands for a no-fly zone, fighter jets, and expedition of Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership would only lead to the spilling of conflict into surrounding countries and draw the world into a greater conflict.
The west which has accepted Russia as its forever enemy (evident from not accepting Putin’s request to join NATO some two decades back), has no option but to sit down and resolve its differences with Putin. Because, even if they are successful in dethroning him and putting some more favorable leader which suits their taste, let’s say Alexey Navalny, then also Russia and the West would continue being on a collision course.
Those who know Putin, know that if it comes to his ego and reputation, he is not going to stop at anything less than total victory, in that process he is ready to punish anyone and everyone and that unfortunately includes his beloved mother Russia.
Endnotes:
2. https://indianexpress.com/article/world/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-pilot-7797081/
3. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/09/11/russias-net-public-debt-falls-to-zero-a67238
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera#Jews
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion
15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Countries'_responses